To: Yacht Song of Joy, Charles Lytton
From: Locus Weather, Ken McKinley, 207-236-3935, locuswx@midcoast.com
Forecast for yacht trip from the Rappahannock River to Bermuda
Date and Time Prepared: Fri 4-Jun-99, 1600 GMT
Desired Departure Date:  Sat 5-Jun-99, early morning

At 1200 GMT Fri 4-Jun-99, low pressure was centered east of southern
Labrador with a cold front extending south-southwest across Newfoundland
and to the east of Nova Scotia, then southwest through the western Atlantic
to the South Carolina coast. A ridge of high pressure extended from western
Quebec south through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio valley. A
subtropical ridge of high pressure extended along 30°N through the western
Atlantic, across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. An
inverted trough of low pressure extended from near Jamaica north-northeast
across eastern Cuba and into the southeastern Bahamas.

The cold front will push farther east off the coast and south toward
Florida through this afternoon and tonight, and a high pressure center will
develop in the ridge and will move to the New England coast later tonight
and off the coast by tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the high center
will be located southeast of Nova Scotia near 43°N/63°W with a ridge
extending west-southwest into the Chesapeake region. The high will move
east through Sunday, but the ridge will remain in place to its
west-southwest. The subtropical ridge will  weaken and shift east through
the next few days as the cold front continues to push south and east. A low
pressure center will develop in the trough of low pressure over the Bahamas
tomorrow and will drift slowly west-northwest through Sunday.

In the longer range, the high will continue moving east through Monday, and
by Monday evening will be centered near 42°N/41°W with its ridge extending
west-southwest to the north of Bermuda and into the Carolinas. The ridge
will settle slowly south through Monday night and Tuesday. The low center
will edge west-northwest through this period into south Florida. Low
pressure will move southeast from eastern Canada into Maine on Tuesday, and
by evening a cold front will extend from the low in northern Maine
southwest into the Chesapeake region. The low will move southeast into the
Gulf of Maine Tuesday night, then will weaken as it moves east on
Wednesday, leaving a frontal boundary along  about 40°N in the Atlantic to
the New Jersey coast, then southwest into the Chesapeake region. Low
pressure will develop southeast of Bermuda on Wednesday, then will move
northeast through Thursday. The ridge in the western Atlantic will remain
in place through Wednesday and Thursday, settling south to about 30°N.

Conditions for departure from the Rappahannock River tomorrow morning will
feature east winds at 5-9 knots with quiet seas. As the yacht moves south
through the bay, winds will increase to 7-12 knots with a small chop
developing. Tomorrow afternoon as the yacht moves into the Atlantic,
east-southeast winds are likely at 10-16 knots, and seas will be running
2-3 feet. Tomorrow night winds will be east at 10-16 knots with seas
building to 2-4 feet. On Sunday  east winds will continue at 10-16 knots as
the ridge remains to the north of the yacht, and seas will run 3-5 feet in
the Gulf Stream. Winds will become east-southeast later Sunday, then Sunday
night winds will diminish to 7-13 knots. On Monday, light east-southeast
winds will become more variable in direction as the ridge axis moves closer
to the yacht, and generally light winds will continue through Monday night
and Tuesday as the ridge settles south into the region. On Wednesday, winds
will become west at 6-10 knots as the ridge continues to settle south,and
these conditions will likely continue through Wednesday night and Thursday
as the yacht approaches Bermuda.

The pattern is does not look as good as it did yesterday with the ridge in
the Atlantic settling south more slowly through the next several days. This
will lead to headwinds for the first couple of days in the Atlantic, and
although wind speeds will not be that strong, seas will tend to be a bit
short and steep in the Gulf Stream. The situation is probably manageable,
although it may be a bit uncomfortable in the Gulf Stream. Lighter winds
are likely early next week with west winds through the middle of the week
as the yacht approaches Bermuda. To avoid headwinds through the Gulf
Stream, the departure would need to be delayed until Monday. Taking this
step would lead to southerly winds toward the end of the passage at light
to moderate speeds early next weekend.

Recommendation is still to plan to depart as scheduled on Saturday. It is
probably worth checking in tomorrow morning before departure to be sure
that winds will not be any stronger from the east than the current
forecast. With the expected speeds, the sea conditions should remain
manageable, if a bit uncomfortable, and the passage can be made safely. On
the other hand, waiting until later Sunday or Monday would likely yield a
more comfortable ride across the Gulf Stream, and at this time it appears
that conditions will remain acceptable through the entire passage.

Call, fax or email with any questions. I will be available early tomorrow
for an update if desired.